Can Postgraduate Students Solve the Enrollment Cliff?

According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, undergraduate enrollment increased by 1.2% across all institution types in 2023. This is a good sign for the industry, but the enrollment cliff is still coming. With regional bachelor’s institutions expected to lose more than 11% of their students by 2029, many institutions are still grappling with how to address it. 

The forecasted enrollment decline is attributed to various factors.

1. Demographic Shifts: The number of high school graduates has plateaued and is expected to decline in certain regions due to lower birth rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
2. Economic Factors: Rising tuition costs and student debt are significant barriers for potential students. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic had a lasting economic impact, straining family finances and making higher education less accessible for many.
3. Perceived Value of a Degree: There is growing skepticism, fueled by continued political polarization, about the return on investment of a college degree, the role higher education plays in society, and the Biden administration’s renewed efforts to tackle the student debt crisis.
4. Alternative Education Paths: Increasing availability of online courses, certification programs, and apprenticeships offer alternatives to traditional four-year degrees, appealing to cost-conscious and time-restricted students. Coupled with the increasing number of companies no longer requiring bachelor’s degrees for many positions, prospective students have plenty of alternatives to traditional education.

Can Graduate Admissions Offset Undergraduate Declines?

Institutions are addressing the enrollment cliff through increased attention and resources spent on graduate enrollment. Graduate programs, particularly in business, engineering and computer science, can attract international students, professionals seeking advanced qualifications and returning adult learners. All of whom might help offset revenue losses from undergraduate programs.

However, several challenges make this solution less feasible.

Market Saturation 

There is a limit to the expansion potential of graduate programs. Many fields are already experiencing a surplus of graduates, diminishing the value of further degrees. Additionally, as the job market continues to improve, and more education options are available to those seeking new credentials, graduate school may become a less necessary option for career advancement.

Resource Allocation

Expanding graduate programs will likely require substantial investment in faculty, facilities, and other resources. This shift might strain resources critical for undergraduate education, impacting the ability to launch and market new and existing programs.

Financial Barriers

Graduate programs can be more profitable. However, they also come with higher tuition costs, which could deter potential students, especially in an economically unstable climate.

Broader Implications for Higher Education

Beyond challenges, the shift toward graduate programs as a response to undergraduate enrollment declines presents broader implications.

• Institutional Identity and Mission. This shift might lead some institutions to move from their long-standing missions as primarily undergraduate or residential institutions, altering their identity and historical role in the education sector.
• Economic and Community Impact. Universities act as economic engines in their communities. Changes in program focus might affect their role in local economies, particularly if shifts lead to reduced local enrollment.
• Overcrowding the Market. As more institutions expand their graduate offerings, the risk of over-saturating the market presents itself. Schools should consider all alternative enrollment sources, like degree completion for adult learners, increased STEM offerings, community college partnerships, high school dual enrollment, and more.

While expanding graduate admissions may offer a temporary buffer against the challenges the undergraduate enrollment cliff poses, it is not a cure-all. Institutions must consider the long-term implications of such a shift, including potential market saturation, strained resources, and the impact on their core educational missions. 

As demographics shift and alternative educational pathways gain traction, colleges and universities must adopt a more holistic approach. Higher education must adapt and evolve strategically while staying true to its core values of expanding knowledge and opportunity. This means enhancing undergraduate programs, embracing innovative education models, and aligning with the evolving labor market demands.