The enrollment cliff is here.
We all know this to be true. Yet, somehow, we’re still not spending enough time, energy or budget to recruit adult learners. Although this isn’t universally true across higher education, it rings true for this higher ed marketer. I challenge anyone reading to find a conference (not named UPCEA or NAGAP) with more than one session focusing on adult learners.
A6: genuinely can’t believe I’m saying this: we’re not paying enough attention or allocating enough resources to some college, no degree students and adult learners. #EMChat
— Shane Baglini (@shanebaglini.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 6:56 PM
Outside of the explicit reason to target adult learners—there will be fewer traditional undergraduate students to recruit in 2025 and beyond—there are several more tangible and intangible reasons I would like to discuss in this article.
In the fall of 2022, adult learners—typically students older than 25—accounted for 23%, or 2.9 million, of the 12.8 million students pursuing an undergraduate degree. Additionally, per EAB, the number of adult learners from Gen Z is expected to double by 2031, growing from 31% to 60% of the adult learner population. All this is to say that one student population is beginning to shrink rapidly, and another is expected to grow rapidly. Universities ought to consider developing a comprehensive strategy to capitalize on the rapidly growing population.
Did I mention there are fewer high school graduates? The total number of high school graduates is expected to peak in 2025 at around 3.9 million and decline steadily through 2041 by around 13%. A common misnomer is that graduate and adult education can completely mitigate this decline. The fact is that adult learner growth will most likely not outpace traditional-aged learner declines, making it nearly impossible to make up for financial shortfalls due to enrollment declines. That said, it can help mitigate losses and sometimes be the difference between a school closing or remaining viable. Institutions not yet in the adult learner market are going to fall significantly behind faster than they realize.
Adult learners provide incredible value and richness to a college campus. They bring diverse experiences, backgrounds and circumstances to the classroom and enrich the educational experience for students and faculty. Their professional experience often helps bridge the gap between theory and practice, especially when blended with the unique characteristics of traditional-age students, and they frequently challenge traditional students and faculty to explore different viewpoints, fostering deeper learning.
Selfishly, telling adult learner stories is good for marketers. Adult learners are often juggling life circumstances that connect deeply to audiences. Adult learners are typically motivated by factors that may have been interrupted by life circumstances in the past, like starting a family, caring for an aging family member, and starting their career, among other things, making their return to school deeply personal. Not only are adult learners’ stories interesting and compelling, but they also serve to showcase a diversity on our campuses that could not otherwise be communicated.
Higher education, at its core, exists to serve students. To educate aspiring minds and send into the world well-rounded, well-prepared citizens. For centuries, that prism has been applied to students traditionally considered college-age students, 18-22 year olds with their whole lives in front of them. Higher education is now confronted with shifting that lens and preparing students of diverse backgrounds and life experiences to impact our world in ways we’re just starting to conceive.
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